Market Forex of values of New Zealand

                                 Market Forex of values of New Zealand

This week has seen a very intense round of decisions of central banks. Of course, the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve were main attractions, although ultimately not emerged nothing really new, with the exception of the goal of the rate (of around zero) for 10-year government bonds.

Yesterday, the President of the ECB, Mario Draghi addressed the European systemic risk Board in Frankfurt, where he said that the banking sector is too populated to be profitable. It is true that the banks are in the eye of the storm. We continue to believe that Italian banks, for example, can lead to new disorders banking in the euro area. The recent stress test has revealed that the 360 billion euros in bad loans are a major threat to the stability of the European financial system.

Also yesterday, the euro weakened against the Swiss franc as a result of these comments. Thomas Jordan will speak Monday in Geneva after the publication data of deposit. The SNB remains deeply under pressure and in our opinion, the Swiss authorities are kept on the sidelines, but ready to act at any time. When examined the situation in the United States or Japan, it is difficult not to believe that FR profile to keep strong for quite some time more. On the other hand, the Swiss economy is adjusting to a strong franc. Expected growth in Q2 is 2% YOY compared to 1.1% year on year in the first quarter, mainly driven by government spending and foreign trade. However, this situation is fragile, since any test or turbulence could send to the CHF upward. This is the reason why we continue with a bearish posture in the EUR/CHF.

             

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Risk for the United States (by Peter Rosenstreich) debate

Given that upcoming meetings of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, investors focus on the first presidential debate for the elections of the United States, which will take place on Monday.

The relative calm that has spread on the financial markets, and that both meetings of the central bank were basically positive for the market, increases the likelihood that an unexpected result trigger a significant volatility in the market. Global stock indices operate with a bullish tone; the S & P index returned to highs of August, while the VIX fell aggressively from 20 to 12. The debates of the United States have a long history of supporting or damaging the presidential candidates, including the debate in which a weak Nixon faced a strong Kennedy, or when Hillary Clinton not could tellcorrectly the name of the future of the Russian President Dimitri Medvedev.

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Donald Trump is growing in popularity, and there is an uneven historical performance in debates against Hillary, whose surveys show declining results; However, but both candidates are ready to win. Polls suggest that the result is unpredictable, and this might be the most momentous time of the 2016 election. At present, markets expect a Clinton victory, but there is still the risk of the Brexit. A decisive victory of the debate by Trump inquietará markets and cause volatility in the short term, since investors have in mind the possible victory of Trump. Revealing a clear triumph of Trump,or the defense of the leadership of Hillary, we believe that the pursuit of risk positions dominate the behavior of investors in the short term. We continue with our optimistic stance over the Nations of emerging markets, with higher yields and strong fundamental data, such as that of the IDR, INR and the RUB.

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EURUSD the momentum short term EUR/USD is bearish. A schema support is given at 1.1123 (minimum 31/08/2016) while a time strength stood at 1.1257 (maximum 22/09/2016). A key strength is located at 1.1352 (maximum 23/08/2016) and then at 1.1428 (maximum 23/06/2016). A strong stand can be found at 1.1046 (minimum on 05/08/2016). He is expected to decrease to 1.1100. In the longer term, the technical structure favors a downtrend of very long term, provided you hold resistance at 1.1714 (max 24/08/2015). The pair is operating in the range since the beginning of 2015. A strong schema support is given by 1.0458 (minimum 16/03/2015). The current technical structure since last December, however, involves a gradual increase forex.

The GBP/USD GBPUSD is again trading around 1,300. Hourly resistance is 1.3121 (maximum 22/09/2016). A key strength stands at 1.3445 (maximum on 06/09/2016). Schema support can be found at 1.2947. Expected to show constant pressure downward. Long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote that has paved the way for a major decline. Support long term which locates in 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. A long term resistance is located at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a reversal in the long term in the negative trend. However, it is very unlikely to happen at this time forex.

USDJPY sale on USD/JPY pressures are strong. The pair continues to drive down. A strong resistance can be found at 104.32 (maximum 02/09/2016), while a time resistance stands at 102.79 (maximum 21/09/2016). The psychological support at 100 is not far away. A key support stood at 99.02 (minimum 24/06/2016). It is expected a further fall. We are in favour of a long-term bullish trend. Support now stands at 96.57 (minimum 10/08/2013). Seems totally unlikely to verify a gradual rise towards the main resistance at 135.15 (max on 01/02/2002). He is expected to decrease further to stand at 93.79 Forex).

USDCHF the USD/CHF is ready to follow closely once again stand in 0.9632 (minimum 26/08/2016). There are alternate periods of strong, low volatility, and the pair seems to have no direction. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.9885 (max on 01/09/2016). Next resistance is located in 0.9956 (max 30/05/2016). Expected to show a growing interest for sale. Long-term, the pair will continue to operate in the range from 2011, despite a certain agitation when the SNB eliminated the parity of the CHF. A key support can be found at 0.8986 (minimum 30/01/2015). However, the technical structure supports a long-term upward trend, from the gap

             

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